The ongoing conflict in the Middle East could have effects far beyond the region, potentially disrupting global fertiliser supply and raising food prices, including in Namibia.
At the heart of the issue is ammonia, a key ingredient in nitrogen fertilisers like urea and ammonium nitrate. Fertilisers made from ammonia are essential for growing crops such as maize, wheat, grapes, and vegetables. Any disruption in ammonia exports could push global fertiliser prices higher, affecting farmers everywhere. Middle Eastern countries, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, are major producers of ammonia.
Large volumes are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. If the conflict disrupts exports or increases shipping costs, fertiliser prices could rise sharply, reducing crop yields and eventually increasing food prices globally.
Namibia imports about 90% of its fertiliser, mostly through suppliers in South Africa. This makes Namibian farmers vulnerable to changes in global fertiliser markets (The Brief, 2023). Fertilizer is particularly important for irrigated crop and horticulture sectors, which produce: Table grapes; Tomatoes, onions, and potatoes; Maize and wheat. Much of this production comes from irrigation schemes along the Orange River at Aussenkehr and in northern Namibia. The horticulture sector is a major contributor to the economy.
Namibia’s table grape exports alone generate over N$1 billion annually, supplying markets in Europe and the United Kingdom (The Brief, 2025; Namibia Agricultural Union). Higher global fertiliser prices would increase production costs and could eventually lead to higher food prices for Namibians. The country also imports a large portion of staple foods, including maize and wheat, meaning rising global prices can directly affect local consumers. Namibia’s agriculture faces challenges beyond global fertiliser supply. Much of the country’s crop production is rain-fed, particularly in northern regions. Recurrent droughts and climate variability already threaten yields. If farmers are forced to reduce fertiliser use due to high costs, crop production could be further affected, adding pressure to food security.
Namibia is taking steps to reduce its dependence on imported fertiliser through green hydrogen projects. These initiatives use renewable energy, mainly solar and wind, to produce hydrogen, which can then be converted into green ammonia, a cleaner alternative to conventional ammonia production. The Daures Green Hydrogen Village near Uis aims to produce around 20 000 tonnes of green ammonia and 80 000 tonnes of fertiliser annually once operational (New Era, 2024). At a larger scale, the Hyphen Hydrogen Energy project in Tsau //Khaeb National Park is expected to become one of the world’s largest green hydrogen developments, with the potential to produce hundreds of thousands of tonnes of green hydrogen annually, much of which could be converted to ammonia for export (Government of Namibia; Hyphen Hydrogen Energy).
These projects could allow Namibia to produce its own fertiliser, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening both food security and economic resilience.
By Eileen van der Schyff
Sources:
The Brief Namibia (2023, 2025) – Fertiliser imports and horticulture sector data
Namibia Agricultural Union – Agricultural production statistics
New Era (2024) – Daures Green Hydrogen Village fertiliser production plans
Government of Namibia / Hyphen Hydrogen Energy – Green hydrogen project information
International Fertilizer Association – Global ammonia and fertiliser production data
